Former President Donald Trump’s return to the White House signals a potential reshaping of the global oil market, with expectations of tougher enforcement of U.S. oil sanctions against Iran. Analysts anticipate that a renewed crackdown on Iran, an OPEC member, could reduce global oil supplies, although it may carry risks, particularly in straining relations with major importers like China.

Throughout his campaign, Trump criticised President Joe Biden’s handling of oil export sanctions, asserting that a lack of rigorous enforcement has weakened U.S. standing and emboldened Tehran. He claims Biden’s approach allowed Iran to circumvent sanctions, increase oil sales, build revenue, and expand its influence in the region through support for armed militias. In 2024, Iranian crude exports reached their highest levels in years as the nation sidestepped the punitive sanctions Trump re-imposed in 2018 after withdrawing the U.S. from the nuclear accord with Tehran.